Oct 3, 2016 - Eliciting probability distributions with SHELF (version 3.0)

by Jeremy Oakley

A new release of SHELF (version 3.0) is now available.

Tony O’Hagan and I are pleased to announce a new release of the SHeffield ELicitation Framework (SHELF) for eliciting probability distributions from experts, available here.

This is a major upgrade to version 2.0 (released 6 years ago!), featuring:

  • Additional extensive advice for organising and conducting SHELF elicitation workshops, in the form of several new documents.
  • Updated SHELF 1 and SHELF 2 templates, with the six versions of SHELF 2 now consolidated into a single template.
  • Two new SHELF 3 templates for eliciting distributions for a group of uncertain quantities. This is the first time that SHELF has included templates for multivariate elicitation.
  • Several PowerPoint slide sets to assist with explaining the different kinds of judgements that experts are required to make, and to help them to make those judgements accurately.
  • A new R package for fitting distributions to expert judgements.
  • Examples of an evidence dossier and completed SHELF templates.